By Kyle Showalter
Running backs are sexy again.
2024 saw a massive resurgence in the position’s fantasy allure. Saquon Barkley posted perhaps the best running back season in NFL history. Derrick Henry’s first year in Baltimore saw him almost join Saquon in the 2000 yard club. Jahmyr Gibbs took over the Lions’ backfield after David Montgomery’s injury and posted 32.6 fantasy points per game in the last 3 weeks of the season. Pair all of this with some bad injury luck on the wide receiver side and a lot of folks got a reminder of how vital running backs are to winning a fantasy championship.
This season’s draft board has me adopting an unfamiliar strategy. I have long been an advocate for scooping up elite wide receivers in the early rounds as the talent pool has tended to dry up earlier than running backs. This year I find clicking on running backs early and often, usually having two backs on my roster through three rounds. 2024’s success at the position has shot running backs up the board and as a result has pushed a lot of good receivers down. This feels like a particularly bad year for zero RB builds, but there are values at the position to be found later in drafts. I personally feel a lot more comfortable with robust RB or at the very least hero RB builds this season.
With that out of the way, let’s dive in!
All statistics are provided via the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the best tool in fantasy football, unless otherwise stated.
Targets
Kenneth Walker
Rank:RB13, Consensus ADP: RB17
Kenneth Walker was a legit bellcow in 2024. He managed a 62.4% rush share in his third NFL season, 6th highest in the NFL. He didn’t totally dominate the goal line work for Seattle, but he did manage a healthy 12 i5 attempts in his 11 games last season. Walker took a big step forward as a pass catcher in 2024, earning 4.6 targets per game (TGT/G). That mark was tied for the 3rd highest in the NFL behind only Alvin Kamara and Devon Achane amongst running backs that played at least 5 games. What we didn’t get from Walker in 2024 was the explosive element of his game that we’ve seen in the past. Walker is a twitched up freak that’s capable of scoring from anywhere on any play but was severely handicapped by the Seahawks abysmal offensive line last year. The team invested heavily in the unit this offseason, drafting Grey Zabel in the first round and Christian Haynes in the third to man the two guard spots. Zabel in particular has been making waves throughout camp. New Seahawks offensive coordinator Clint Kubiak is known for his knack for the run game and Kenneth Walker should be a huge beneficiary of being the lead back in his system.
Chuba Hubbard
Rank: RB16, Consensus ADP: RB18
Chuba Hubbard was one of the best clicks in fantasy last year, amassing 1195 yards and 10 TD’s on 250 carries on his way to an RB13 finish. Hubbard was wildly efficient in 2024, posting top 10 marks in explosive rush rate (exp run%), stuff rate (stuff%), and expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G) while posting a top 5 rate in yards after contact per attempt (YACO/ATT). He paired this efficiency with a great workload, delivering a top 10 mark in weighted opportunities per game (WO/G), a top 5 i5% (percentage of teams carries inside the 5-yard line) and an 11% target share. The Panthers rewarded him with a 4-year, $33 million contract with nearly $17 million guaranteed in the middle of the season. The team did bring in some competition for Hubbard this offseason when they signed Rico Dowdle, who displayed solid rushing efficiency of his own last season, to an incentive laden contract worth up to $6.25 million, and drafted Trevor Etienne in the fourth round. Hubbard is likely to cede at least some of his workload to Dowdle and Etienne, but there’s room to fall and still pay off his ADP at 45 overall. I think the threat of this is a little overblown, as Hubbard only had 8 receptions on third downs all of last season. The Panthers offense should be much better in 2025 after seeing Bryce Young’s vast improvement once returning to the starting lineup and the addition of 8th overall pick Tetairoa McMillan at wide receiver. Hubbard looks to be one of the main beneficiaries with his role at the goal line likely secure.
Treyveon Henderson
Rank: RB18, Consensus ADP RB20
Maybe the biggest ADP riser of the fantasy season, Henderson has flown up draft boards in August. This is for good reason, as he may be the most explosive player in a highly vaunted rookie running back class. Henderson excels as a pass catcher, posting 850 receiving yards in his college career (2nd in class) and 1.16 yards per route run (YPRR, 7th). That explosiveness translates to the ground game as well; amongst players with at least 100 rushing attempts, he posted a ridiculous 7.1 yards per carry (YPC, 5th). I don’t believe the Patriots will hand him a bellcow role in week one and there’s a chance that he won’t get the lion’s share of the work at any point in 2025 with the dependable Rhamondre Stevenson around. That doesn’t change that Henderson is one of if not the most explosive player on the Patriots roster. If the Patriots are to take as large of a step as Vegas’ win total of 8.5 suggests, Henderson will have to be an integral part of the offense. If he can manage a 40% rush share and a majority of the passing work, which feels like a 50th percentile outcome, Henderson will be a good value at ADP. If he pushes that rush share higher and takes over the goal line work at any point or if Stevenson goes down with injury, Henderson would move into turbosmash territory.
Cam Skattebo
Rank: RB30, Consensus ADP: RB34
Skattebo is a top 2 tackle breaker in the aforementioned 2025 running back class, and he may not be 2. His college numbers are ridiculous, posting a staggering 4.09 YACO/ATT and 103 missed tackles forced (MTF) in his last season at Arizona State. Skattebo isn’t just a plodding power back, he’s also an impressive pass catcher. His 15% target share and 11.1 yards per target (YPT) were both best in the class. I’ll forgive you if you think it’s hard to get excited about a running back that runs a 4.7 40, but Skattebo possessed a unique blend of thumping ability and pass catching prowess that makes him a tantalizing dart throw as a player who can dominate touches between the 20’s, at the goal line and in the pass game. He has some ground to make up after injuring his hamstring in camp and looks to be a clear backup to second-year back Tyrone Tracy coming into week 1. I do think there’s cause for optimism here, as Tracy has a fumbling problem and Giants head coach Brian Daboll is coaching for his job. If Skattebo shows he can be reliable and Tracy’s fumbling issues persist, I see a clear path for Daboll to tilt the committee in Skattebo’s favor as the season goes on. His ADP is currently sitting at 99 and is as low as 113 on ESPN, putting him around backs like Jordan Mason, JK Dobbins, and Javonte Williams. I’m taking a shot on Skattebo every time over those guys.
Zach Charbonnet
Rank: RB35, Consesnsus ADP: RB36
Zach Charbonnet is everything you want out of a handcuff. Talented? Check. Dominates work when the starter misses time? Check. Sitting behind a starter that has a history of missing time? Check. In the 6 games Kenneth Walker missed last season, Charbonnet posted 72 rush yards per game, 4.8 YPC, 6 rushing TD’s, had 100% of the teams i5 carries, ran 61% of the team’s routes and managed an 11% target share on his way to weekly fantasy finishes of 1, 6, 13, 17, 23 and 25. Kenneth Walker has been dealing with a foot injury all camp, and while the team insists that they expect him back for the opener, it continues a pattern of Walker dealing with injuries. Whenever Walker sits, Charbonnet is a must start.
Jaydon Blue
Rank: RB40, Consensus ADP: RB44
It’s hard to project 5th round rookies for a big role, but Jaydon Blue feels like the the Cowboys best shot at capturing solid backfield production. Veterans Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders ranked 50th and 58th respectively in exp run% amongst running backs with at least 50 carries in 2024. Blue’s 94th percentile 40 time and 87th percentile 10-yard split at the combine are obvious on tape, making him a touchdown threat from anywhere on the field. Blue’s size (5’9”, 196 pounds) admittedly limits his upside as a high-volume rusher. This was the case in college as he only had 215 carries in his 3 seasons at Texas. Where he does offer upside is as a pass catcher, hitting an impressive 1.55 YPRR across his college career. If Blue manages to capture the pass catching role in Dallas he can easily pay off his ADP of 137. The Cowboys project to be one of the league leaders in pass rate over expectation in 2025, which could lead to a lot of opportunity for the rookie.
Bhayshul Tuten
Rank: RB41, Consensus ADP: RB50
This kid is a freak athlete. Tuten posted a 4.32 40 and a 40.5 inch vertical at 5’9” 210 pounds at the NFL combine. The Jaguars took him in the 4th round after posting 17 touchdowns in his final college season. After an impressive showing in the Jags first preseason game, Tuten was rewarded with first team reps in practice for the first time in camp. The likeliest outcome for Jags running backs this year is that the backfield is a complete mess with Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby and Tuten cannibalizing each other to the point of fantasy irrelevance for all three. If one does emerge, I’m betting on Bhayshul Tuten to be the guy. New Jaguars GM James Gladstone and head coach Liam Coen have no ties to Etienne, who is in the last year of his rookie contract and posted some of the worst efficiency metrics in the NFL last season. There’s a real chance that Etienne doesn’t finish 2025 on the Jaguars roster. Tank Bigsby is more likely to stick around but is a complete zero in the passing game. Whether by injury or a roster shakeup, if Tuten finds his way into an expanded role in Liam Coen’s offense, who turned 4th round rookie Bucky Irving into a fantasy superstar in the back half of last season, he carries immense upside at his ADP of 152.
Fades
Alvin Kamara
Rank: RB19, Consensus ADP: RB14
Your goal every time you load into a draft should be to win a championship. Finishing in fourth place versus last place is the same result (unless your league has a punishment that gives you nightmares), so we should be chasing upside with every pick. Alvin Kamara’s receiving profile presents him with a high floor, but due to his offensive situation I have a hard time imagining him being a difference maker in the 2025 fantasy season. He’s being drafted ahead of guys with incredible upside like Kenneth Walker, Omarion Hampton and Treyveon Henderson. If you’re scared off of those options because of their admittedly lower floors, James Conner and Chuba Hubbard both offer a higher floor/ceiling combination than Kamara and are also being drafted behind him. Vegas is projecting the Saints offense to score the second least points in the NFL (tied with the Giants and only 6 points more than the last place Browns), which makes it hard to project a lot of touchdown opportunities for Kamara. He’s PPR scammed his way into solid RB production before, but at 30 years old with his offensive situation I find myself looking elsewhere in drafts more often than in years past. He’s a safe bet to finish as an RB2 but doesn’t feel like a click that can change your fantasy season.
Breece Hall
Rank: RB22, Consensus ADP: RB16
Breece Hall has a lot of strengths. Unfortunately, he has one glaring weakness: New Jets head coach Aaron Glenn seemingly hates him. That may be a little hyperbolic, but this backfield does look like it’s going to be a legit timeshare. Hall’s primary competition for touches is Braelon Allen, who managed a meager 3.63 YPC and 1.1% exp run% as a rookie. Isaiah Davis is slotted to have a role in some capacity as well. Three running backs splitting the work on an offense Vegas has projected to score the 4th least points in the NFL this season is more than enough for me to fade Breece Hall, who posted a pedestrian 4.2 YPC and a 5.3% exp run% in 2024. If Hall is going to pay off at his 5th round ADP, he will need to dominate passing work for the Jets. He wasn’t overly efficient through the air last season; his .74 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) ranked 33rd out of 59 running backs with at least 100 routes. Even more troubling, that number ranked behind his backfield-mate Braelon Allen’s .76 FP/RR. Even with Justin Fields’ surprisingly 2nd highest check down rate amongst QB’s with at least 100 dropbacks last season, it is hard to find the upside case for a running back in a three way timeshare whose quarterback will also poach a portion of the goal line work.
Aaron Jones
Rank: RB25, Consensus ADP: RB25
Jones got the bellcow treatment last season and saw his efficiency stats plummet across the board. He posted four year lows in missed tackles forced per attempt (MTF/ATT, 11), stuff% (45.1%), exp run% (3.5%) and YACO/ATT (2.59). He also managed only 5 TD’s despite 13 i5 carries, which is a perfect segue to one of my favorite stats from 2024: Jones tallied an impossible -2 yards on those 13 i5 carries. The Vikings treaded for Jordan Mason in the offseason, pairing Jones with one of the most efficient pure runners in the NFL last season. Amongst backs with at least 100 attempts, Mason posted a 7.8% exp run% (2nd behind only Jahmyr Gibbs), 3.06 YACO/ATT (3rd), and .22 MTF/ATT (2nd). Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is on the record saying that Mason is going to take over the goal line role for the Vikings, siphoning away a lot of touchdown upside from Jones. If that’s the case, Jones will need to dominate the pass down role in order to help you win a fantasy championship. While possible, he was good but not great in that regard last season. He was only the RB20 in 2024 despite playing the 8th most running back snaps in the NFL and is being drafted at RB24 in a season where he’ll turn 31 in December. I don’t see the path for Jones to beat his ADP in a meaningful way and would rather go after the wide receivers being drafted in this range.
Travis Etienne
Rank: RB38, Consensus ADP: RB31
New Jaguars head coach Liam Coen turned the Buccaneers backfield into a fantasy juggernaut last season with both Bucky Irving and Rachaad White posting RB2 finishes. Irving in particular shined, taking over the backfield later in the season and becoming a fantasy darling in the process. I don’t see the same thing happening in Jacksonville, particularly for Travis Etienne. Amongst RB’s with at least 100 rushing attempts, Etienne ranked 30th in YACO/ATT, 27th in exp run% and was tied for dead last in MTF/ATT. All of this culminated in him underperforming his season-long XFP by a shocking 39.3 points. I wouldn’t be shocked if he finishes 2025 on a different roster.
