By Kyle Showalter
Quarterback is universally regarded as the most important position on the football field. This makes sense given that they’re the only player that touches the ball on every single offensive play, but how important is the position in fantasy? The perception of this has changed drastically over the past decade.
Conventional wisdom has told us it’s smart to wait on quarterback, as ample supply has made it easy to draft a quarterback late and find comparable production to someone that opts to click quarterback early. Being a onesie position, meaning you only start only one of the position in traditional fantasy leagues, the number of startable quarterbacks tends to be higher later in drafts than running backs and wide receivers, which take up two spots in your lineup (plus whichever you decide to flex).
That line of thinking has changed recently with the uptick in high-end quarterback scoring. The top 4 quarterbacks in fantasy last year all averaged 22.5+ points per game, giving them at least a full 5 point advantage over the QB12. These top quarterbacks, if we are able to identify them correctly, present a unique floor/ceiling combination that can create an advantage for those that elect to go QB early in drafts. This year, the consensus top four quarterbacks are Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts. The archetype is clear: running quarterbacks that have upside through the air. Jackson and Daniels ran for 915 and 891 yards respectively in 2024, ripping off chunk plays on scrambles and adding nearly 100 fantasy points on the ground through yardage alone. Allen and Hurts got there via touchdowns, with Hurts leading the position with 14 and Allen finishing 2nd with 12.
My quarterback strategy in 2025 is simple: take an elite guy in the first 3 rounds (preferably one of the two guys I have listed as targets below), or wait at the position and get one or two high upside targets later in the draft. I’m almost never drafting a quarterback in the middle rounds as picks 50-90 are loaded with strong running backs and wide receivers, particularly the latter. We want to find guys that are going to elevate their floor with their rushing with upside that can vault them into a top-half QB1 finish.
All statistics are provided via the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the best tool in fantasy football, unless otherwise stated.
Targets
Jayden Daniels
Rank: QB1, Consensus ADP: QB3
I know, hot take to start. Jayden Daniels was incredible in 2024, throwing for over 3500 yards and 25 TD’s while adding nearly 900 yards and 6 more TD’s with his legs on his way to a QB4 finish as a rookie. Daniels has a chance to break fantasy as a sophomore due to his rushing upside. He led the NFL with 72 scrambles last year, 22 more than the next closest mark of 50 from both Bo Nix and Caleb Williams. His 31 missed tackles forced (MTF) ranked 2nd amongst quarterbacks and his 11 inside the 5 carries (i5 carries) were tied for Josh Allen for second most. This culminated in the second most expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G) from rushing alone amongst quarterbacks in 2024. The Commanders bolstered their O line this offseason, bringing in 5x Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil in a trade with the Texans and former First-Team All-Pro Deebo Samuel (who fits perfectly in Kliff Kingsberry’s offense). With Terry McLaurin and his 13 receiving TD’s back in camp after finally getting his extension done, Daniels is in an improved situation in year two. If he can take a step forward as a passer or find the endzone more often as a rusher (both Justin Fields and Kyler Murray, who don’t get as much goal line work and are lesser rushers, had meaningfully higher TD% on rushes than Daniels), the ceiling for Daniels can be one we haven’t seen before in fantasy. He should be the first quarterback taken everywhere.
Jalen Hurts
Rank: QB3, Consensus ADP: QB4
The rushing upside is obvious but I’ll give it to you anyways. The tush push (the real name is the brotherly shove) is so unstoppable 22 teams voted to ban it in May. Hurts had 19 i5 attempts last year, 8 more than the next closest quarterbacks (Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels) and scored a position high 14 TD’s on the ground last year. His 7.7 weighted opportunities per game (WO/G) and 7.9 XFP/G from rushing both easily led the QB position while also posting a top 10 mark in scrambles. Now where it gets interesting: the 2024 Eagles had the lowest pass rate of any offense over the last 4 seasons at 48%. The only other team in that span that posted a pass rate below 50% was a Falcons team coached by Arthur Smith with Desmond Ridder under center. Hurts only dropped back to pass 438 times in 15 games. That works out to 29.2 dropbacks (DB) per game, the lowest mark amongst quarterbacks with at least 400 DB’s. This volume limited his ceiling as a passer, leading to totals of 2903 yards (20th) and 18 TD’s (T-20th). On an efficiency basis, however, Hurts was fantastic in 2024. Out of 23 quarterbacks with at least 400 DB’s, Hurts had the second highest completion % over expected (CPOE, 6.1%) and fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB, .74). The Eagles strength of schedule has flipped in 2025, going from one of the easiest in the league to what projects to be one of the hardest. 9 of the team’s 17 games during the fantasy season will come against playoff teams in 2024, including matchups against the Bills, Chiefs and Commanders, who all joined the Eagles in the conference championship games last season. The Eagles also lost 5 key players on defense from their magical 2024 run, with Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Darius Slay and C.J. Gardner-Johnson all moving on in free agency and Brandon Graham retiring. If their league-best defense regresses to a back-end top 10 unit, the Eagles will likely be forced to air the ball out at a much higher rate than they did last season. Pair Hurts’ goal line rushing role with his efficiency as a passer on a team that is likely throw the ball more this season and you have a recipe for massive upside. You can often get him as the 4th QB drafted on all formats, making him one of the easiest clicks in drafts for me this year.
Justin Fields
Rank: QB9, Consensus ADP: QB13
Justin Fields is what he is. He isn’t a good passer, hell he isn’t even a good quarterback. But what is he? He’s one of the best runners at the position we’ve ever seen. Fields turned in the second best rushing season we’ve ever seen from a signal caller in 2022, posting 1143 yards and 8 TD’s across 15 games. He had the 3rd highest scramble rate in the NFL last season and the second highest TD% on scrambles. Despite not being able to throw much at all, Fields has finished top 6 in FP/DB each of the last 3 seasons amongst QB’s that played in at least 10 games, including a second-place finish in 2022. When Fields is out there, he produces for us in fantasyland. Even though the vibes in Jets camp are bad, Fields should be let loose as a rusher by his new team. New Jets head coach Aaron Glenn knows first-hand how badly Fields can hurt you with his legs; Fields used to run rampant against his defenses when the two matched up twice per year in the NFC North. If we get any kind of uptick in passing efficiency, we are staring at a league winning quarterback you can click in the 100’s. If we don’t get that uptick, Fields is still capable of producing as a high-end QB1 on a week to week basis (albeit with a much lower floor than most).
Dak Prescott
Rank: QB10, Consensus ADP: QB11
Dak is the only pocket passer I’m interested in drafting. We’re only one year removed from a 2023 season that saw him throw for 4516 yards on a 69.5% completion%, lead the league with 36 passing TD’s and finish QB3 in fantasy. The Cowboys have almost no hope of putting together a solid run game with a backfield made up of the ghosts of Miles Sanders and Javonte Williams plus fifth-round rookie Jaydon Blue, who is exciting but injured to start the season. What the Cowboys do have hope of is building a prolific passing attack on the backs of superstar Ceedee Lamb and newcomer George Pickens. Pickens posted a very solid 2.18 YPRR despite suboptimal quarterback play from Russell Wilson in 2024. He provides a missing piece to the passing game with his top 15 marks in yards per route run (YPRR) and targets per route run (TPRR) on vertical routes, perfectly complimenting the underneath role of power-slot Ceedee Lamb. 2024 was bad vibes all around in Dallas with obvious lame duck head coach Mike McCarthy and Dak getting injured. 2025 feels much different under new head coach Brian Schottenheimer with a fully healthy Prescott. A high volume passer throwing to weapons this good tends to lead to a lot of fantasy points.
Fades
Patrick Mahomes
Rank: QB7, Consensus ADP: QB6
Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback, maybe even the best player, in real life football, but the outlier fantasy seasons we remember from the start of his career haven’t accompanied his real life excellence as of late. Mahomes managed just 18.6 (T-12th) fantasy points per game (FP/G) in ’23 and 18.4 (T-11th) in ’24 despite being drafted as the QB1 and QB2 in those respective seasons. Drafters have responded by bumping him down to QB6 this year, but that still feels rich for a guy that has only scored 20+ fantasy points in 5 of his last 26 games (19%). Justin Fields has scored 20+ fantasy points 6 times over that same timeframe in only 13 games (46%) and is drafted as QB11 past pick 100. It feels good to draft Patrick Mahomes and to see his name in your lineup as you head into week 1, but his name does a lot more work than his fantasy production has recently in giving you that sense of security. You can likely get comparable or even better production by simply punting on quarterback and streaming the position all season. Pair this with Rashee Rice’s 6 game suspension to start the season and I won’t be drafting Mahomes this year unless he falls multiple rounds.
Baker Mayfield
Rank: QB8, Consensus ADP: QB7
Baker Mayfield is one of my favorite players to watch and was fantastic in 2024. He threw for 4509 yards and 41 TD’s on a historic 71.4% completion% last season despite both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin missing significant time throughout the year. He had an outlier season in terms of his TD%, posting a 7.2% rate, far above his career average of 4.6% through 2023. He also had an outlier season with his legs, more than doubling his previous career high in rushing yards with 378. I think Baker is a very good quarterback but have my doubts about the sustainability of that production with former Bucs OC Liam Coen moving on to be the head coach in Jacksonville. This is not an indictment of Baker but on the spot where you have to draft him. You have to take him over guys like RJ Harvey, Rome Odunze and Jaylen Waddle, all of whom I’m clicking on before him and just drafting a quarterback past pick 100.
Kyler Murray
Rank: QB11, Consensus ADP: QB9
The vibes in Arizona are bad. Kyler Murray’s main allure in fantasy is as a rusher, but what if I told you he hasn’t lived up to that bill for years?. His 2.5 XFP/G as a rusher in 2024 was tied for 15th best amongst quarterbacks despite scrambling 42 times (9th most). This was in large part due to the fact that he didn’t run much at the goal line last season, only having one rush attempt inside the 5-yard line all year. For reference, Jayden Daniels had 11 and Justin Fields had 7 in only 6 starts. Kyler Murray hasn’t actually been an elite rusher at the position since 2020:
The Cardinals offense is built around low aDOT (average depth of target) throws to Trey McBride. Amongst quarterbacks with 200+ DB’s, Murray ranked 18th in CPOE, 26th in deep throw rate, and T-29th in aDOT. This played a large role in him never developing chemistry with 4th overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. last season, who many at the time were calling the best WR prospect of a generation. Unless we get another outlier rushing season, Kyler Murray projects to be a low-end QB1 with a higher price tag than I’m willing to pay.
