By Kyle Showalter
All statistics are provided via the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the best tool in fantasy football, unless otherwise stated.
Maximizing value is the name of the game in fantasy football. We always want to buy low and sell high, but sometimes we’re forced to buy high and sell low. The important thing is that you are making informed decisions whenever you make a deal so that you have a full understanding of the how’s and why’s of a players performance. These aren’t the only players that I think are worth trading for and away, but at this moment I think they provide the best value.
A small note before we begin… if the Rashee Rice manager in your league is 0-2, you need to get to work on acquiring him immediately.
Onto our regularly scheduled programming:
Buy:
Mike Evans
The fantasy points haven’t been there, but Mike Evans has once again been an alpha to start the season. He currently leads the Bucs in YPRR (1.60), target share (27.1%) and AY share (44.7%). While the YPRR leaves something to be desired, the target share and air yard numbers really stick out. No one on the Bucs is within 9% of Evans’ target share or 17% of his AY share. The appeal of these rate numbers are further amplified by the team’s top 10 PROE, meaning that he’s earning targets to this degree in a high volume passing attack. This has made his target share, which ranks 15th amongst all receivers, even more valuable. For context, Nico Collins ranks one spot above him in target share (27.5%), but Evans has drawn 5 more targets on the season. His 9.5 TGT/G is tied for 9th highest mark of all wide receivers. He’s also moving like classic Mike Evans. His ASS (average separation score) of .231 ranks 8th and his route win rate of 29.2% ranks 4th amongst all wide receivers with at least 25 routes. All of this is despite him drawing a brutal corner schedule to start the year, drawing a ton of A.J. Terrell Jr. in week 1 before being largely shadowed by Derek Stingley Jr. in week 2. The schedule doesn’t get much easier the next three weeks, as Evans will likely see a lot of Sauce Gardner in week 3 (Gardner had a rough 2024 but this is your friendly reminder that he earned First-Team All-Pro honors in 2022 and 2023), Quinyon Mitchell in week 4, and faces a Seahawks defense in week 5 that has given up a league low 17.5 fantasy points to opposing receivers through the first two weeks of the season. Despite this, I am aggressively looking to add Evans to my teams. Usage like this should overshadow any concerns we have about who is lining up across from him. Also, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Evans draws what I believe is the best possible week 17 matchup for pass catchers in the Miami Dolphins. That’s the smash spot of all smash spots in championship week.
Drake London
Duh. London has earned 58 targets on 153 routes in his 5 games with Michael Penix Jr. That comes out to a blistering .38 TPRR. This would be the best mark of any WR to run that many routes in any season in Fantasy Points data history. Outside of 2024 Puka Nacua (finished WR2 in FP/G if you only include games where he ran 70+% of routes) and 2023 Tyreek Hill (WR2 in FP/G), no wide receiver has finished with a TPRR above .33 in the last four seasons. London has continued to earn targets and is currently sitting at .32 TPRR to start 2025. Sure, Darnell Mooney missed week 1 (and missed one game during London’s insane stretch with Penix in 2024), but London’s TPRR isn’t a fluke. His 35.4% first-read target share was the third highest in the NFL over the course of the 2024 season. Michael Penix also throwing to his first read at a top 10 rate in the NFL, priming London to continue to be peppered with targets. Despite this volume, London has only managed 10.2 FP/G (WR43) on 17.8 XFP/G (WR9). That 7.6 point discrepancy is the 3rd largest of any wide receiver this season, topped only by Chris Olave, who has a big quarterback problem, and Xavier Legette, who just had a game where he recorded 8 targets and finished with -2 receiving yards. London is going to close that gap. If the Falcons had a camera on the both sides of the end zone, London catches a four yard TD and scores 20.9 fantasy points in week 1. If that happens, there’s no buying window as his managers would likely be a lot more willing to consider that he was playing hurt during his week 2 dud.
Stefon Diggs
It’s important to remember that Stefon Diggs is still working his way back from the ACL tear he suffered in Week 8 of last season. Diggs was still earning targets before the injury, posting a .25 TPRR despite sharing the field with a target monster in Nico Collins. Diggs hasn’t yet worked his way into a full time role, only running a route on 56.6% of the Patriots’ drop backs to start the year. Despite this, he’s already leading the team with a 17.4% target share. His .26 TPRR laps any other Patriots receiver, with no one else at the position sitting above a .15 mark. Do we really think as the season goes on and Diggs continues to work his way back into game shape that he won’t eventually push that route share up? If you extrapolate Diggs TPRR over an 80% route share, his 8.3 TGT/G would rank 18th amongst all wide receivers. Maybe the Patriots rotate their receivers all season and Diggs never gets to this kind of volume, but the potential upside as the top pass catching option for an ascending Drake Maye far exceeds the risk when you consider what it would likely cost to acquire him.
Hold:
Ladd McConkey
The start to the season has been less than ideal for McConkey managers. He’s posted a 23% target share (24th amongst receivers with at least 10 routes), 1.85 YPRR (41st) and .9 YPTOE (yards per target over expectation, 43rd). While target share is flat year over year (22.9% in 2024), the other metrics are a far cry from his rookie season. His YPRR of 2.57 ranked 10th and his YPTOE of 2.3 ranked 8th amongst receivers with at least 100 routes in 2024. The return of Keenan Allen has been a huge factor in McConkey’s regression. McConkey’s slot usage has fallen from 72% as a rookie to 60.6% in his second season. Allen has lined up in the slot for 49.1% of his routes, taking a chunk of the layup looks that were going to McConkey last season. Quentin Johnston has also looked great to start the year, increasing his ASS from .014 to .108 and his route win rate from 15.9% to 23.1%. While none of this is good news for McConkey, the silver lining is that the Chargers’ are throwing the ball at an insane clip this season. The team’s 12.1% PROE is far and away the highest in the NFL, a huge improvement from their mark of 1.4% last year. Justin Herbert looks like an MVP candidate two weeks into the year and Jim Harbaugh seems determined to let him take the team as far as he can. While we were hoping for a large step forward from McConkey, this level of team passing volume should keep him afloat despite the dip in efficiency.
Treyveon Henderson/RJ Harvey
These two have the same case so I’m going to lump them together. Henderson’s meteoric rise during fantasy draft season was obviously a little overzealous with the benefit of hindsight. Harvey’s draft cost was much more reasonable, but he was still being taken several rounds before his backfield mate JK Dobbins. Despite this, in the words of Aaron Rodgers…
R-E-L-A-X
If you were drafting Henderson and Harvey to be day one difference makers, you were being unrealistic with your expectations. This was always the most likely scenario through two weeks (although both Antonio Gibson and Tyler Badie’s involvement in New England and Denver’s backfields is a surprise). Henderson was never going to be a feature back right away with Rhamondre Stevenson on the roster and the hard-nosed Mike Vrabel calling the shots. JK Dobbins, who has always been good player when he’s been able to stay healthy, was always going to be a part of Denver’s plans, especially early in the season. Even though the way these backfields have shaken out to start the season has been less than ideal, it’s imperative that if you drafted either of these rookie running backs that you stay the course. Don’t just take my word for it, take a look back at some of the biggest fantasy superstars’ starts to their career:
When you clicked on Henderson and Harvey in drafts, it was always for the home stretch of the fantasy season. It’s extremely rare for rookies to make the kind of immediate impact that drafters seemed to be expecting out of these two backs. That doesn’t mean that they were bad clicks. Just last season Bucky Irving went from the RB31 in FP/G over the first half of the season to the RB12 in the second half. Holding the bag feels bad, but selling and seeing someone else reap the benefits of a player you gave up on too soon hurts a whole lot worse. Hold the line.
Tony Pollard
Let’s start with the negatives. Tony Pollard is the RB29 in FP/G with only 9.1 so far in 2025. His XFP/G isn’t much better at 10.8, putting him at RB26. He’s only earned 2 targets in two games. He doesn’t have an i5 or an explosive rush yet. Gross.
Alright, time for the positives. Only Chase Brown has a higher rush share than Pollard. He was the only Titans running back to record a stat in their week 2 matchup against the Rams. That’s something I expect to continue as long as Tyjae Spears is dealing with the high ankle sprain he suffered in camp. Even when Spears returns, I don’t think he offers much in the way of competition for Pollard. In the 12 games that both were active last season, Pollard nearly doubled Spears up in carries. He also (narrowly) ran more routes and earned more targets. Pollard earned 3.5 targets per game last season on a respectable .21 TPRR. Despite the lack of targets to start the season, his route participation has actually increased year over year from 47% to 53.3%. The targets should come with time. The Titans aren’t going to be playing the Broncos and Rams defenses every week, there’s going to be opportunities for Pollard to capitalize on his solid usage. That will come as the Titans offense rounds into form. Sure they aren’t going to turn into one of the highest scoring teams in the league, but their current ineptitude is beyond the reasonable range of outcomes for an NFL offense. One offensive touchdown in two games would make even the best fantasy assets irrelevant. Pollard isn’t going to turn into a league winner, but nobody is going to offer fair value for a back that’s been as unproductive as Pollard has been to start the year. There isn’t much of a choice but to hold and trust that this kind of usage will eventually yield results.
Sell:
Emeka Egbuka
I take no joy in this. I (along with everyone else) was incredibly excited about Egbuka coming into the season. He’s certainly lived up to the hype to start his rookie year, coming out of the gates hot with a 4/67/2 receiving line and scoring 23.6 fantasy points in week 1. He followed that up with another touchdown in week two, salvaging his 4 catch 29 yard day and totaling 12.9 fantasy points. It feels awful to say that a first round rookie wide receiver with 3 touchdowns in his first two career games is a sell. Unfortunately, it’s pretty clear that Egbuka is sun running. Only one wide receiver in the top 20 at the position in FP/G has a lower target share than Emeka Egbuka’s 18.6%. The same goes for his 20% first read target share. His 1.33 YPRR and -1.2 YPTOE both rank dead last amongst the same group by wide margins. The lackluster volume and efficiency are being propped up by touchdowns. All of this is further complicated by the impending return of Chris Godwin. I think it’s a long shot that Godwin is able to come in and return to his 2024 form (he was a full fade for me this year because of his injury). Regardless, Egbuka seems much more likely to be impacted by Godwin’s return than Mike Evans. Much of Egbuka’s production has been schemed up, with 30.8% of his targets coming on designed looks. Godwin led the team last year with a 19.7% designed target rate. If Godwin makes a dent in these opportunities for Egbuka, he hasn’t yet shown the ability to earn targets on his own at a high level despite minimal target competition outside of Evans. I’m not telling you to sell low, as there’s always the possibility that Godwin isn’t himself in 2025. What I am telling you is that folks’ expectations for Egbuka are getting carried away and his value will likely never be higher than it is right now.
James Conner
While Conner’s snap share hasn’t even dipped a full 2% from his 2024 numbers, there are some signals in the Cardinals backfield that have me concerned. The first of which is Conner’s lack of complete dominance in the run game. Conner outcarried Trey Benson nearly 4 to 1 in 2024, racking up 236 carries to Benson’s 63. That ratio has been nearly cut in half, with Conner only outcarrying Benson 23 to 11 to start the year. Conner’s participation in the pass game has always been more good than great (52 targets and 41% route participation in 2024), but it’s a shock to see Benson out route Conner through two weeks with 27 routes to the veteran’s 25. You could argue this was the result of a blowout game script last week, but Benson ran 9 more routes than Conner in the second quarter and the game was within one score up until the two-minute warning. My biggest concern with Conner is his dip in efficiency. His numbers have fallen off across the board this season, going from .29 MTF/ATT to .17, 2.65 YACO/ATT to 1.91, 45.3% stuff% to 56.5% and ripping off 0 explosive runs in his 23 carries. This is made worse when you take into consideration that the Cardinals have had two strong matchups in the Saints’ and Panthers’ defenses, the latter of which are coming off of a season where they sported one of the worst rush defenses of all time. Trey Benson has had no issues with maximizing his opportunities, posting .27 MTF/ATT and 4.09 YACO/ATT. If these numbers hold for both players, Conner’s grip on the backfield will likely continue to slip and could result in him winding up in a 50/50 timeshare or worse. For now he’s still the RB18 in FP/G and has name value. It’s likely that you can still find a trade partner that hasn’t caught on to Conner’s poor play yet and can get a decent enough return to justify moving off of him.
Wan’Dale Robinson
If you can find someone that is willing to pay a WR2 price on Robinson you should take the money and run. He’s coming off a week 2 receiving line of 8/142/1, racking up 28.2 fantasy points. His huge game was highlighted by a 32 yard touchdown on a beautiful deep ball by Russell Wilson in the fourth quarter. There’s a couple of reasons why this is almost certainly not going to be sticky for Robinson. First, it’s a safe bet that Russell Wilson won’t throw for 450 yards again in his career. Sunday was only the second time Wilson has topped 300 yards since week 4 of 2023. This was a situation where the stars aligned against a Cowboys defense that is in contention for the worst in the NFL. Second, and more specifically speaking on Robinson as a player, the guy has been nothing but a low ceiling PPR scammer his entire career. His 17.0 aDOT in week 2 was a massive outlier from his 5.1 career aDOT coming into 2025. And it’s not like this is a trend that was a continuation of his week 1 usage. Robinson was his usual self in the season opener, racking up 55 yards on 8 targets with a 3.5 aDOT. Can Robinson get you 10 points as a bye week fill in? Sure. Can you find that on any given week on the waiver wire? Absolutely. Robinson just isn’t the kind of player I’m ever interested in rostering. He’s coming off his first game with over 20 fantasy points in his career and will almost certainly fall back to his typical 6/40/0 receiving line next week. This is probably your one shot to get value for a replacement level player.
