Watching wide receivers play is like watching art be made. There’s nothing more beautiful on a football field than watching a receiver lull a corner to sleep before snapping out of their break and creating separation. It is by far my favorite part of football.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In fantasy, elite wide receivers have become more important than ever with the rise of passing across the league we’ve seen over the last decade. Last year was a different story, with a litany of injuries to top WR’s happening across the league. This, paired with a historic season for running backs, has pushed a lot of good wide receivers down fantasy draft boards, setting up some great values at wide receiver that we haven’t seen in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As many as 10 wide receivers present upside that makes them worthy of a first round pick this season, a number higher than any season I can remember. While I think it’s smart to go running back early and often this year, getting one of these elite guys feels like a must. This year’s board has hero WR builds feeling as strong as they ever have in fantasy. The middle rounds are particularly strong at WR this year, making me more comfortable than usual to focus my early picks on running back and grabbing an elite onesie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
All statistics are provided via the Fantasy Points Data Suite<\/a>, the best tool in fantasy football, unless otherwise stated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A lot of you need a reminder of who A.J. Brown is. He’s an absolute alpha wide receiver despite sharing the field with another top 20 receiver in the league. Amongst wide receivers that ran at least 250 routes in 2024, Brown’s .29 targets per route run (TPRR) was tied for 6th best and his 31% target share (TGT%), 3.22 yards per route run (YPRR) and 42% first-read target share all ranked 2nd in the NFL. He’s also elite with the ball in his hands, posting the 5th highest missed tackles forced per reception (MTF\/rec) in the league with .24. The Eagles passing volume was historically low last season, posting the lowest pass rate in Fantasy Points Data history (dates back to 2020). The Eagles face a much more difficult schedule in 2025 and will likely be forced to air the ball out more as a result, setting up Brown for a potentially monstrous season. If you take Brown’s efficiency numbers from last year and extrapolate them over 500 team pass attempts, Brown’s pace across 17 games would be a mind-melting 155 targets, 108 receptions, 1742 yards and 11 touchdowns. That would culminate in 20.5 fantasy points per game (FP\/G), which would have been the second-best mark amongst wide receivers and the fourth best amongst non-quarterbacks in all of fantasy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ja’Marr Chase won the receiving triple crown and was the highest scoring non-quarterback in all of fantasy last season. In the 12 games Tee Higgins was active, Chase managed 10.3 targets per game (TGT\/G) and put up 90 receptions, 1250 yards and 13 touchdowns. What kind of numbers did Tee Higgins put up while running routes across from that dominant of a running mate? An impressive 8.8 TGT\/G, 73 receptions, 911 yards, 10 touchdowns and 15 endzone targets (EZ targets). That added up to an impressive 18.6 FP\/G, good for WR5 on the year. His peripheral numbers were good but not quite what you would expect for that kind of fantasy output. His .24 TPRR, 2.12 YPRR, 29.8% first-read target share and .52 fantasy points per route run (FP\/RR) ranked 23rd, 24th, 19th and 19th amongst WR’s with at least 250 routes. So how did he manage his impressive FP\/G? The Bengals passing volume was outstanding, posting a 66.9% pass rate (2nd highest in the NFL) and a 63.3 pass rate inside the opponent’s 10 yard line (2nd). The Bengals were the ultimate shootout team in 2024 with a horrific defense that doesn’t look like it’ll be much improved in 2025 and an all-world quarterback in Joe Burrow under center. Even if Ja’Marr Chase repeats as the WR1 in fantasy, Tee Higgins has proven he can present top-5 upside and is drafted outside of the top 10 at the position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Calvin Ridley is a good player walking into an elevated situation in 2025. The Titans took Miami quarterback Cam Ward first overall in the draft and invested heavily in their offensive line this offseason. Newcomers Tyler Lockett (completely washed) and fourth-round rookies Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor don’t present a meaningful threat his workload. His 2.03 YPRR, .23 TPRR and 22% TGT% don’t blow you away, but with an elevated situation, he should see a jump in efficiency from last season even if he doesn’t see an uptick in usage. He’s being drafted as the WR29, below his WR27 finish in 2024 with Will Levis throwing him the ball, essentially being taken at his absolute floor with easy WR2 upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Travis Hunter is a special athlete, giving shades of Justin Jefferson in the way that he moves around the field. While he’s raw as a receiver compared to other players in the class, he’s already extremely special at the catch point and has a ton of room to grow as a route runner throughout his rookie season. New Jaguars head coach Liam Coen hasn’t missed an opportunity to talk about how excited he is to work Hunter into his fantasy-friendly offense, hinting at an 80% route share<\/a> (unlikely, but impossible upside if true). Coen is another example from the McVay coaching tree that has proven to boost fantasy output across all positions. Hunter has seen a solid workload out of the slot and has been put in motion during his preseason action in a similar way we saw Chris Godwin be utilized by Coen last season (Godwin posted 19.7 FP\/G before his week 7 injury). Hunter does carry unique risk due to his projected role on defense, including the chance that an injury in the secondary forces him into a larger role on that side of the ball, resulting in a reduction in offensive snaps. I’m more than willing to take on that risk at the tail end of the fifth round in drafts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is a bet on Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams. If any of the pass catchers in a crowded Bears offense are going to emerge, I’m betting on the physically gifted second-year receiver with outrageous college production (Odunze led the Pac-12 in receiving yards in his last two collegiate seasons). Odunze already carved out a solid role as a touchdown threat despite facing limited playing time behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen as a rookie, racking up 14 EZ targets (T-8th most). Allen’s departure vacated 112 targets in the Bears offense with wunderkind Ben Johnson bringing his high-octane offense to town, giving Odunze the opportunity to lead one of the potential best offenses in the league in targets in 2025. That makes his WR35 price tag feel like a solid floor with a ton of room to smash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n You can’t be in on Drake Maye without being in on Stefon Diggs, and I’m all in on Maye. Diggs was highly productive in his 8 games in Houston before tearing his ACL last season, posting a 22% target share, .25 TPRR and 1.97 YPRR while competing for targets against mega-alpha wide receiver Nico Collins. It’s a fair point to say that a receiver coming off an ACL tear that will turn 32 during the season is likely on the downswing of their career. The counterpoint is that Diggs is walking into a situation in New England with nearly no target competition. None of the Patriots wide receivers managed 1.5 YPRR or .20 TPRR in 2024, clearing a path for Diggs to come in and dominate targets in an offense with an ascending second-year quarterback. Diggs has seemingly been ahead of schedule in his recovery from the ACL tear all offseason and has looked fully healthy in training camp. He’s one of my favorite values in the middle rounds of drafts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Pearsall is coming off of a rookie season where he spent the first 6 weeks recovering from a gunshot wound to the chest that he sustained in August. It was slow going for the first round rookie until week 17 when he posted a 8\/141\/1 receiving line on 10 targets and followed that up with 6\/69\/1 on 8 targets in week 18. The bull case is that Pearsall’s path to recovery from being shot has been underestimated by the fantasy community. There was a nearly two month stretch where Pearsall was unable to run or workout at all, likely making it extremely difficult to work himself into football shape during his rookie season. He’s gotten a lot of work in camp with Brock Purdy this year and has 9ers beat reporters buzzing about a potential breakout season. Jennings is currently nursing a calf injury that the team says isn’t related to his ongoing contract dispute with the team. Betting on guys that are injured in camp is always a risk, but Jennings .27 TPRR, 2.47 YPRR and 29.2% first-read target share (lead team by 7.4%) in 2024 paired with his ADP of 105 make him an ideal dart through as you get into the late rounds of drafts. Pearsall’s odd rookie season and Jennings injury\/contract situation make them risky, but both of them present tons of upside at their ADP’s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In 9 Anthony Richardson starts, Josh Downs managed a 30\/420\/4 receiving line, .27 TPRR, 2.33 YPRR, 12.2 FP\/G and 10.8 expected fantasy points per game (XFP\/G). In his 6 games without Anthony Richardson, Downs numbers jumped to 42\/383\/1, .33 TPRR, 2.23 YPRR, 14.4 FP\/G and 15.8 XFP\/G. That XFP\/G would have ranked WR11 last year between Nico Collins and Chris Godwin. With Daniel Jones penciled in as the Colts starting quarterback, Downs is an auto click for me late in drafts and is easy to push into your lineup as long as Richardson isn’t on the field. Jones play style is a perfect fit for Downs’ game, as his 7.5 average depth of target (19th out of 26 QB’s with 350+ dropbacks in 2024) means he’s often targeting the area of the field that Downs feasts in. Danny Dimes won’t be the Colts savior, but he can elevate the pass catchers in Indianapolis in a way that Richardson couldn’t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The likely outcome for Mims in 2025 is he continues to be a gadget player that’s highly efficient in his role. The unlikely outcome is the fun one, where he steps into a full time role in the Broncos offense. Mims efficiency stats are mind boggling, starting with his .71 fantasy points per route run (FP\/RR), second in the NFL only to per route gawd Puka Nacua. His 2.65 YPRR and .27 TPRR both show that when Mims is on the field he has shown to be a highly productive player. Unfortunately, that efficiency hasn’t translated to playing time. His 29% route participation in 2024 made him a complete non-factor in fantasy. Mims has seen a ton of run with the first team offense during the preseason, posting an 82% route participation in the Broncos first preseason game and hovering around that mark throughout the remainder of the Broncos’ exhibitions. If that sticks at all, Mims has all the makings of a league winning player. At his 151 overall ADP, there’s no risk and an unlimited reward for clicking on Mims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We’re only one year removed from Tyreek Hill being on 2000 yard watch, finishing .2 FP\/G away from being the WR1 on the year and being a top 5 overall pick in fantasy coming into the next season. Last year, however, was a completely different story and was bad enough to almost complety take me off of Hill in 2025. Counting only Tua starts from last season, Hill saw .24 TPRR (.38 in 2023), 1.93 YPRR (4.05), .11 first downs per route run (1D\/RR, .19), 8% designed target share (17.3%) and .46 FP\/RR (.85). To be fair to Hill, it’s important to remember that he was dealing with a wrist injury that required surgery to remove a screw this offseason. That doesn’t change that Hill will be playing at age 31 this season, saw a massive statistical dip in his age 30 season, and has a play style that’s largely reliant on speed, a trait that historically doesn’t age well. The Dolphins also face 2-high safety looks at one of the highest rates in the NFL, which if you’ve been paying attention, has driven people insane<\/a> due to it’s impact on deep passing across the league. Vibes around the Dolphins are bad overall, with coach Mike McDaniel likely on the hot seat and Tyreek openly talking about how he disagrees with his coaches deployment of DeVon Achane at the goal line during training camp. You can argue that Hill is the ultimate upside play in the third round, but I think this situation is one to avoid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n MHJ was actually much better than he got credit for as a rookie.<\/p>\n\n\n\nTargets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
A.J. Brown<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Rank: WR8, Consensus ADP: WR10<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
Tee Higgins<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Rank: WR11, Consensus ADP: WR12<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
Calvin Ridley<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Rank: WR20, Consensus ADP: WR29<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
Travis Hunter<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Rank: WR24, Consensus ADP: WR31<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
Rome Odunze<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Rank: WR30, Consensus ADP: WR35<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
Stefon Diggs<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Rank: WR35, Consensus ADP: WR38<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
Ricky Pearsall\/Jauan Jennings<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Pearsall – Rank: WR37, Consensus ADP: WR40<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
Jennings – Rank: WR39, Consensus ADP: WR46<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
Josh Downs<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Rank: WR43, Consensus ADP: WR50<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
Marvin Mims<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Rank: WR52, Consensus ADP: WR56<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
Fades<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Tyreek Hill<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Rank: WR14, Consensus ADP: WR13<\/h6>\n\n\n\n
Marvin Harrison Jr.<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Rank: WR28, Consensus ADP: WR19<\/h6>\n\n\n\n