Fantasy Points Data Suite<\/a>, the best tool in fantasy football, unless otherwise stated.<\/p>\n\n\n\nDeath, taxes, and overreactions to the beginning of the fantasy football season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These are the three certainties in this life. It’s impossible to avoid the victory laps and the panicked cries of fantasy analysts everywhere right now. It’s both warranted and ridiculous. The NFL is a bit of an oxymoron. On one hand, you have the understanding that we are dealing with an incredibly small sample size at the moment. Jayden Reed was the WR4 last year through the first two weeks of 2024 and only scored 15 or more fantasy points 3 times the rest of the season. On the other hand, football is a small sample size game by default. 17 games isn’t even 10% of an MLB season, a sport where data and analytics rule as trends have a much longer runway to balance out over the course of 162 games. If you don’t act soon enough in fantasy football, you’ll miss the boat and get left behind. Where does this leave us? We have to be smart and make sure we’re finding the signals that have a real chance to stick. That means looking at things that we know matter. Passing work. Rookies emerging over the course of the season. Examining coachspeak and how playcallers like to use their players. We can’t get caught up in the noise and panic, we have to sift through and find what is actionable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These are the 5 most important takeaways from the first two weeks of the 2025 season:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1. Tyler Allgeier’s rush share isn’t hurting Bijan Robinson<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Much to the dismay of fantasy managers everywhere, the Falcons insisted on keeping Tyler Allgeier involved in the offense to start last season. This kept Bijan from posting a top 12 PPR finish at the position through the first five weeks of 2024. They decided to fully turn the backfield over to him starting in week 6, letting their superstar RB be the focal point of their offense. He paid this off handsomely, turning his 61.2% rush share from week 6 on into 1171 rushing yards (3rd most) and 13 TD’s (2nd), culminating in 22.8 FP\/G, the best mark amongst all running backs. Allgeier rush share was a meager 26.9% over this stretch. Drafters that were hoping to see this continue are likely concerned to see the Falcons back to their early 2024 ways in terms of how they utilize their running backs. Bijan’s rush share has fallen to 50.7% while Allgeier’s has risen back to 38.8%. Despite this, Bijan has still managed 22.1 FP\/G and his XFP\/G has risen from 19.4 from week 6 on last season to 20.4 in 2025. How is this possible? Simple: his usage in the passing game has been outstanding. Bijan has improved his impressive 4.3 TGT\/G over his stretch as the bellcow for Atlanta last season to 6.0 to start 2025. His 76.1% route participation isn’t just the best amongst RB’sin the NFL, it would be the best in Fantasy Points data history. It shouldn’t be an issue for Bijan if the Falcons elect to trim some of the fat off of his workload and allow Allgeier to take some rushing work off his plate if he’s going to be anywhere close to this involved in the passing game. Allgeier did steal a goal line attempt on Sunday, and while this is something to monitor, it’s not something that should cause any panic at this point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2. Juwan Johnson is a top 5 TE rest of season<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
I’m just as surprised to write that as you are to read it. While Johnson has been a nice player in his NFL career, he’s never been thought of as a guy that an offensive coordinator would want to feature. His 24.2 career yards per game doesn’t exactly scream “you need to get me the ball”, but new Saints head coach Kellen Moore obviously saw something that no one else had before as he’s decided to make Johnson the focal point of his offense to start the season. His 82% route share is 4th best amongst TE’s and is up a full 20% from 2024. Being on the field for that much of the Saints’ pass plays has led to a position-best 20 targets through 2 weeks. Those targets have come largely a result of his 31.6% 1st-read target share, the second highest mark amongst all TE’s. That volume has added up to 17.6 XFP\/G, 2.5 points better than the next best TE. Is it likely he continues to get 10 targets per game, a number that would have far and away led all TE’s last season? No, but there’s room to fall and still land in the upper echelon in usage at the position. Only four TE’s managed 8 targets per game last year. Only eight got to 6. There probably isn’t a ton of touchdown upside in a bad Saints offense, but that can be offset by Kellen Moore’s track record of running his offense at a very high pace and maximizing the amount of snaps the offense runs per game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
3. Outside of Tetairoa McMillan and Emeka Egbuka, Elic Ayomanor is the rookie WR to own in fantasy<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Ayomanor started to pick up steam late in the fantasy draft season. It’s good process – rookie receivers make up a disproportionate part of the pie of league winners in fantasy football. Tennessee doesn’t offer much in the way of target competition for Ayomanor outside of Calvin Ridley. He’s more than doubled up fellow rookie Chimere Dike in routes so far, Tyler Lockett has a .07 TPRR and Chig Okonkwo is a JAG with a 3.0 aDOT. Ayomanor hasn’t been on the field as much as the rookie sensations from last season (only 64% route participation through the first two games), but has been heavily involved when he’s been out there. His 26.8% 1st-read target share (tied with Ridley), .27 TPRR, .39 FP\/RR, and 12.3 XFP\/G are all team highs. He’s essentially already taken over as the top option for fellow rookie Cam Ward when he’s been on the field. As the two of them continue to develop chemistry and Ayomanor earns more playing time, he has the ability to develop into a fantasy difference maker over the second half of the season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
4. Bhayshul Tuten is the number 1 waiver\/buy low running back target<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
If you’re in one of the 60% of ESPN fantasy leagues where Tuten is still available on waivers, you need to be aggressive with your FAAB to grab him. If he’s already on another manager’s roster, you should be trying to put together a package to acquire him. The Jaguars were comfortable enough with Tuten to ship Tank Bigsby off to Philadelphia after week 1 and the rookie did not disappoint in his first opportunity to earn more work. He posted the 6th best YACO\/ATT and the top stuff% of the 34 running backs to have 8+ carries in week 2. He only ran 6 routes on the week but still earned 2 targets and even scored from 8 yards out on a designed look in the passing game. Yes Travis Etienne has looked great to start the year, but he’s only posted over 60 rushing yards in a game beyond week 5 twice over the last two seasons. Even if it’s unlikely that Tuten overtakes Etienne as the primary rusher in Jacksonville, his role is only going to grow from here. It’s not hard to imagine a world where he emerges as the primary back on passing downs while getting 8-10 carries per game. If the goal is to chase upside, which it should always be, Tuten has a lot to offer while costing very little.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
5. Cam Skattebo flipped the Giants’ backfield usage in week 2<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Coming out of week 1, it looked as if Tyrone Tracy had successfully held off Cam Skattebo to be the Giants workhorse. The second year back played 45 snaps to Skattebo’s 7 and lapped the rookie with 10 carries to 2 and 26 routes to just 3. Tracy leading the backfield wasn’t necessarily surprising, but the degree in which he dominated the work was. This usage flipped on its head in week 2. Skattebo took the majority of the backfield work, playing 33 snaps to Tracy’s 27, out carrying him 11 to 5 and running 18 routes to Tracy’s 17. It was expected that Skattebo would gradually push Tracy for control of the backfield over the course of the season and possibly take over the majority of the work towards the end of the year, but this kind of usage in week 2 wasn’t something anyone foresaw. It’s possible that their usage flip flops over the coming weeks, but seeing a rookie get the majority of the work in an extremely competitive game that went to overtime for a coach and front office that are clearly on the hot seat is a very encouraging signal for what the Giants think about Skattebo.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
By Kyle Showalter All statistics are provided via the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the best tool in fantasy football, unless otherwise stated. Death, taxes, and overreactions to the beginning of the fantasy football season. These are the three certainties in this life. It’s impossible to avoid the victory laps and the panicked cries of fantasy…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":204,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-605","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/aroundtheshowsports.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/mnlj-1024x519.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/aroundtheshowsports.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/605","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/aroundtheshowsports.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/aroundtheshowsports.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aroundtheshowsports.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aroundtheshowsports.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=605"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/aroundtheshowsports.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/605\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":652,"href":"https:\/\/aroundtheshowsports.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/605\/revisions\/652"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aroundtheshowsports.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/204"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/aroundtheshowsports.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=605"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aroundtheshowsports.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=605"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aroundtheshowsports.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=605"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}