Photo: Getty Images
By Kyle Showalter
All statistics and rankings are based on PPR scoring
This bi-weekly piece highlights what players’ are seeing their fantasy value rise and fall based on their recent and season long performances.
Stock Up
Breece Hall – RB, Jets
How often do you see a running back get vultured at the 1-yard line twice and still finish as the RB3 on the week?
Breece Hall’s usage over the first three weeks of the season were a mixed bag, as his 21 targets elicited praise while his 21 carries garnered concern. Week 4 changed that.
If Week 4 suggested that Breece Hall had taken control of the Jets backfield, Week 5 confirmed it. The second-round rookie out of Iowa State managed 197 yards from scrimmage on 20 touches against the Miami Dolphins, including a 79 yard catch-and-run on a wheel route that saw him go down at the one-yard line (and led to the first of two times where Michael Carter would vulture a TD after Hall was tackled at the one). He managed to get into the end zone later in the game to finish with 27.7 fantasy points, displaying the potential upside of a rookie who has also finished with double digit fantasy points in each of his first 5 NFL games.
What make’s Breece Hall’s skillset so unique is his ability to command targets downfield. Hall’s ADOT of 5.9 is far and away the top mark amongst RB’s with at least 10 targets and is nearly double the second highest mark amongst the group (Chase Edmonds, 3.0). He’s the only RB in 2022 that has received multiple targets of 20+ air yards on the season.
Considering Zack Wilson’s play style and desire to push the ball downfield, Breece Hall is a unique problem that defenses are going to have to figure out how to solve. Now the RB7 on the year, Hall should be locked into lineups as a legit RB2 with massive upside.
DK Metcalf – WR, Seahawks
The question was never about DK and always about Geno Smith. Turns out the answer was the obvious one: DK Metcalf is quarterback proof.
Well, that may be a bit disingenuous. Is he quarterback proof, or is his new quarterback good at doing exactly what makes him successful? Geno Smith has done an exceptional job with the deep ball this season; on throws of 20+ air yards, Smith ranks 2nd in completion%, 1st in TD’s, and 1st in PFF’s Big Time Throw%. He’s PFF’s second rated deep-ball thrower in 2022 with a 94.5 grade, only 0.1 behind the top rated Josh Allen. Geno Smith himself has been a useful fantasy asset, currently sitting at QB5 on the season, and he provided us with an all-time quote in the process.
But enough about Geno, this is about DK Metcalf! While his ADOT is down slightly to 12.0 from his career-average in the mid-13’s, Metcalf has still proven to be one of the best downfield threats in the NFL. His 2 TD of 20+ air yards are tied for the most in the league and includes this beautiful 50-yard score from Week 5. 2022 has been different for Metcalf in that his efficiency has increased drastically. His 2.3 yards per route run is a massive improvement over his career 1.99 mark and raises his fantasy floor drastically. His 27.9% target share further showcases his elevated floor, with this being a top 10 mark amongst players with at least 30 targets.
At least so far, the QB change has helped DK Metcalf rather than hurt him. The defense also appears to be a huge issue for the Seahawks, meaning they will find themselves in negative game scripts most weeks and will be throwing the ball, something that obviously benefits Metcalf. His raised floor compliments his elite ceiling well, and after three straight top 20 WR finishes (including a finish at 9), Metcalf is an upper-tier WR2 with massive week-to-week upside.
David Njoku – TE, Browns
David Njoku has finally arrived. This was always within the realm of possibilities for Njoku, who is listed at 6’4″, 246 pounds, runs a 4.64 40, and signed a big money extension with the Cleveland Browns this offseason. We were just waiting for the breakout to happen.
After being minimally involved the first two weeks of the season, Njoku has emerged as a major part of the Browns passing attack. From Weeks 3-5, David Njoku put up weekly finishes as the number 2, 14, and 5 TE, good for TE4 over the three-week stretch and finishing behind only Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, and TJ Hockenson (who put up 39.9 of his 52.3 fantasy points from Weeks 3-5 in Week 4). He’s averaged 7 catches on 8 targets for 83 yards during this span, good for 14.3 FPPG and setting up a high weekly floor without factoring in potential TD upside.
Njoku’s target share of 18.7% currently ranks 8th amongst NFL TE’s. His 3rd ranked yards per route run of 2.06 is closer to 1st place TE Mark Andrews’ 2.27 than it is to 5th place Pat Freiermuth’s 1.84. At the most desolate position in fantasy football, David Njoku has established himself as a strong weekly play and a bonafide TE1. He’s emerged as the clear number 2 receiving option for Jacoby Brissett, who has been a pleasant surprise in 2022.
Did i mention he’s still available in nearly a third of ESPN leagues?
Stock Down
Brandin Cooks – WR, Texans
2022 has been a peculiar season for Brandin Cooks. The 29 year old pass catcher is still garnering a strong 25% target share in the Houston Texans offense and is on pace for a career high 136 targets in 2022. He’s also running a similar number of routes as he had in previous years, as his 94% route participation is right in line with his career average. Strangely, this combination of high route participation and a solid target share isn’t translating to points for fantasy managers.
Amongst WR who have played at least 60% of snaps, Cooks currently ranks in the bottom 20 in the NFL in catch%, only securing 24 of his 40 total targets. This issue compounds when looking at which areas of the field Cooks is struggling to convert his targets into catches. Cooks has done a good job converting his short opportunities on the year, catching 18 of 25 targets (72%) that have come his way within 9 or less yards of the LOS. Unfortunately, Cooks hasn’t produced at all beyond that point, as he has only hauled in 6 of his 15 targets that traveled at least 10 air yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
This is where the Davis Mills slander begins. Mills has struggled mightily in 2022 after surprising as a rookie last season. As most quarterbacks without elite arm talent do, Mills tends to struggle to push the ball outside the numbers. This has resulted in him completing just 8 of his 28 attempts outside the numbers that travel at least 10 air yards. Cooks has received 8 of these targets and has caught just 1.
Both Cooks’, who has also looked a step slow physically, and his quarterback’s struggles have led to 3 finishes outside the top 50 and only 1 weekly finish inside the top 20 for the WR so far in 2022. He posted a 4.4 ADOT in Week 5 to bring his season mark down to 8.9, down more than 2 full yards from the 11.1 ADOT he managed in 2021. Cooks has become a highly targeted possession receiver with little touchdown upside in this Texans offense. This is a far cry from the Brandin Cooks who finished as the WR20 last season.
Melvin Gordon – RB, Broncos
The narrative surrounding Melvin Gordon’s role following Javonte Williams season ending knee injury was all over the place. Some believed that Williams’ knee injury would thrust Gordon into a bell-cow role being that he was the only running back outside of Williams receiving meaningful touches pre injury. Others cited Gordon’s fumbling issues (he fumbled 4 times on 45 touches Weeks 1-4) as well as fellow Bronco’s RB Mike Boone’s involvement in passing situations after the injury to Williams as reasons to temper expectations for Melvin Gordon as a fantasy asset.
It’s now clear that Mike Boone is going to be involved in the offense going forward, which does not bode well for Melvin Gordon’s fantasy value. The two were nearly evenly involved in the passing game in Week 5, with Gordon running 21 routes to Boone’s 19 against the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday Night. Both managed 3 catches on 3 targets. Boone did have a slight edge in yards per route run (2.47 to 2.33) and ripped off a 34 yard gain on a screen pass late in the third quarter, the longest play from scrimmage of any running back on the night. Boone also outpaced Gordon’s 3.6 YPC by nearly 2 yards, managing 38 yards on his 7 carries (5.6 YPC) to Gordon’s 54 yards on 15 carries.
Overall, Melvin Gordon managed 13.3 fantasy points on 18 opportunities. A fine performance, but his usage proves disappointing for those that were hopeful he could be a lineup-lock as an RB2 in Javonte Williams’ absence. Without dramatic improvement from this Broncos offense as a whole, it’s unlikely that Gordon will have the TD upside necessary for managers to confidently start him with Mike Boone leeching passing down work. He’s an RB3 going forward.
Devin Singletary – RB, Bills
It was only a week ago that we were singing the praises of Devin Singletary after he posted an 87% snap rate and a 77% route participation against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4. He may have only managed 11.6 fantasy points, but that level of usage coming off a 24-point performance in Week 3 was highly encouraging. After finishing out the 2021 fantasy season strong, he looked to be on the verge of a breakout before only managing 5.6 fantasy points on 8 opportunities in Week 5.
Devin Singletary is a better football player than a fantasy asset, partially because of the quarterback he’s tied to. Josh Allen is the ultimate weapon to have for your fantasy WR, but there may not be a QB that vultures more fantasy points away from RB’s than Allen. His team-high 79 rushing attempts far overshadow Singletary’s 55. Singletary has managed double-digit carries only once this season and has had 10 or less opportunities (carries + targets) 3 times. Allen also takes nearly all of the goal line opportunities for himself, with Singletary’s 2 rushing attempts inside the 5 once again being dwarfed by Allen’s 5. This leaves Singletary with little touchdown upside on a weekly basis.
Singletary does little in the way of the passing game to make up for this. His 11% target share is solid, but is greatly inflated by a Week 3 matchup where he saw 11 targets (only 12 targets in other 4 games combined). Without an increase in touchdown opportunities or involvement in the passing game, Singletary is going to give fantasy managers too low of a floor to be a reliable start on a consistent basis. This offense is exciting, but unfortunately Singletary is the odd man out.
All data provided by PFF and the Footclan Market Share Report
